Interactive election analysis
Maps, models and trackers from Patrick Ruffini's newsletter, The Intersection, built on voter files, precinct returns and every public House and Senate poll.
2026 Midterms
Interactive tools for the House and Senate.
Live version for subscribersThe 2026 Swingometer
All 435 House districts on one wheel. Move the generic ballot and see which seats flip.
Live version for subscribersThe 2026 Polling Index
Every House and Senate race poll, measured against 2024 and adjusted for pollster bias.
Senate Explorer
Every Senate race since 2000 against the presidential baseline, plus a 2026 seat simulator.
Primary analysis
Who crossed over, who turned out, and where, from the voter file and precinct returns.
Polls point to Democratic gains in red places. In Texas, the gains were in already-blue areas.
113,615 Republican-history Texans voted in the Democratic primary, mostly in blue, urban precincts.
Georgia's primary electorate flipped blue, and crossover voters had little to do with it.
Democrats cast 54% of major-party primary ballots, up from 38% in 2022, as 2022 Republican primary voters stayed home.
Ohio's Democratic primary surge was built in the cities and suburbs, not the red counties.
The Democratic share of primary ballots rose from 33% to 47%, led by cities and suburbs.
Democrats barely gained in red Iowa. Republicans stayed home almost everywhere else.
Iowa's primary moved toward Democrats mainly because 2022 Republican primary voters stayed home.