The Intersection

The 2026 Swingometer

All 435 House districts on one wheel, ordered by how each voted for president. Move the generic ballot and see which seats flip and where the 218th seat falls.

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Every House seat on one wheel

Drag the needle to any generic ballot. Seats left of the line go Democratic, seats right of it go Republican.

The Swingometer: Democrats 226, Republicans 209, and a wheel of 435 House district blocks from safer Democratic to safer Republican, with the needle at a D+6.4 generic ballot and a cut line at Trump +7.9.

The Swingometer at a D+6.4 generic ballot: Democrats 226, Republicans 209.

For paid subscribers

Get the Swingometer link in the Substack post

The interactive Swingometer is for paid subscribers to The Intersection. Subscribe, then open the launch post for the link.

Read the post on SubstackSubscribe

Find the 218th seat

As you drag, the wheel names the tipping-point seat, the reddest seat Democrats win, the bluest seat Republicans hold, the race closest to flipping and the seats incumbency is deciding.

Six summary cards: tipping-point seat, reddest seat the Democrats win, bluest seat the Republicans win, closest to the line, seats changing hands, and seats decided by incumbency.

Set the rules yourself

Turn incumbency up or down, change the penalty for each kind of candidate, and damp the swing in the closest seats. Every block and seat count updates.

Swingometer settings: generic ballot presets, incumbency at full, half or off, candidate penalties with the districts they apply to, and a battleground damper slider.

Every seat around the line

District, candidate, 2024 margin, incumbent cushion, penalties, outside spending rank and expected margin for each race. Search by state or member.

Table of House districts around the tipping point with candidate, 2024 presidential margin, incumbency cushion, penalty, spending rank and expected margin.

The whole Swingometer on a phone

Scroll the screenshot to see every section. Drag the needle with a thumb, tap a block for the race, search the table by state or member.

Full-page screenshot of the Swingometer on a phone, from the seat count and wheel down through the settings and the race table.
  1. 01Seat count and majority
  2. 02The wheel
  3. 03Tipping-point seats
  4. 04Presets and incumbency
  5. 05Candidate penalties
  6. 06Races around the line

How the Swingometer works

Start from 2024

Each district is placed by its 2024 presidential margin.

Apply the national swing

The generic ballot average moves every seat from that baseline.

Adjust seat by seat

Incumbents' records of over- and underperformance, plus candidate penalties, shift individual seats.

Add uncertainty

Optional random variation of up to 5 points shows which winners are fragile.

For paid subscribers

Get the Swingometer link in the Substack post

The interactive Swingometer is for paid subscribers to The Intersection. Subscribe, then open the launch post for the link.

Read the post on SubstackSubscribe