Electorate party swings, 2016–2026

Change in the electorate's R−D margin, by state

Each dot is a state: how many points more Republican (right) or Democratic (left) its electorate's party margin was than in the comparison election. The tick marks the median state.

Electorate margin and swing by state

R−D share of general-election voters by party. Swings are the later margin minus the earlier one; R+ means the electorate moved toward Republicans. Click a heading to sort.

How this is built

• Voters are people on today's voter file with a recorded vote in each November general election. People who have since died, moved out of state or been removed aren't counted, so older electorates are smaller than the official turnout.
• Party is each person's party today, applied to every year. A swing here is a change in which voters turned out, not in how people are registered. Someone who switched from Democrat to Republican since 2016 counts as a Republican in every year.
• Party registration states use registered party; minor-party and unaffiliated voters count in the total but not the margin. Primary-history states use the party of the primaries a person has voted in; voters with no primary history count in the total but not the margin. Because primary voters turn out more reliably, their margins swing more between low- and high-turnout elections.
• The 2026 turnout model column sums each registrant's 2026 turnout score by party, on the same party basis, so it reads as the electorate the model expects. Registrants without a score count as zero.
• Hawaii, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and Wisconsin have no party information on the file and are left out.
• The weighted averages in the summary boxes combine every state in the group into one electorate, so larger electorates count for more. Each is the combined R−D margin of the later election minus that of the earlier one.