2026 Polling Index Snapshot · 60 days out
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You're looking at the Polling Index from 60 days out.

The live Polling Index updates as new polls come in, through Election Day. It's for paid subscribers to The Intersection: subscribe, then open the Substack post for the link.

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The Intersection

2026 Polling Index

How much better are Democrats polling than in 2024? Each House and Senate poll is compared with its seat’s 2024 presidential margin and adjusted for pollster bias. Positive numbers favor Democrats.

Snapshot: polls through 4 September 2026 · 60 days before Election Day

House

Swing since 2024

+11.7 points

Average Democratic gain in the seats polled.

Swing adjusted for seat mix

+9.4 points

Estimated gain in a seat that voted like the nation. Implied national margin: D+7.9.

Senate

Swing since 2024

+10.0 points

Average Democratic gain in the seats polled.

Swing adjusted for seat mix

+8.7 points

Estimated gain in a seat that voted like the nation. Implied national margin: D+7.2.

01

Polling trends

One dot per poll, by final fieldwork date, with rolling averages. Hover for details.

Trendline Range

Average swing in the seats polled.

House and Senate Swing Since 2024Adjusted for pollster bias| Sources: The New York Times race polls; The Downballot district-level results; certified 2024 results0+5+10+15even with 20246 months out54321election dayDemocratic swing since 2024 (pts.)SENATEHOUSED+10.0D+11.7today · 60 days outHouse and Senate Swing Since 2024Adjusted for pollster biasSources: The New York Times race polls;The Downballot district-level results; certified 2024 results0+5+10+15even with 20246 mo.42electionDem. swing since 2024 (pts.)SENATEHOUSED+10.0D+11.7today · 60 days out

02

Senate polling across five elections

Democratic swing from each cycle’s presidential baseline. Diamonds are the results, weighted by polls.

Senate Swing, 2018–2026Adjusted for pollster bias| Sources: FiveThirtyEight poll archive; The New York Times race polls; certified Senate returns via MIT Election Lab-100+10+2012 months out963election dayDemocratic swing since the prior presidential election (pts.)60 days outD+10.0 now20182020202220242026Result — the dashes are the missSenate Swing, 2018–2026Adjusted for pollster biasSources: FiveThirtyEight poll archive; The New York Times race polls;certified Senate returns via MIT Election Lab-100+10+2012 mo.963electionDem. swing since prior pres. election60 days outD+10.0 now20182020202220242026Result

The trendline toggle above applies here too, with a separate seat-mix adjustment for each cycle.

03

Senate polling pace

Senate polls finishing fieldwork in the prior 30 days, against the average of the last two midterms and the last two presidential cycles.

Senate Polling PaceTrailing 30 days, one poll per race| Sources: FiveThirtyEight poll archive; The New York Times race polls; certified Senate returns via MIT Election Lab010020030040012 months out963election daySenate polls in the trailing 30 days60 days out56 in 30 daysMidterms (2018, 2022)Presidential (2020, 2024)2026Senate Polling PaceTrailing 30 days, one poll per raceSources: FiveThirtyEight poll archive; The New York Times race polls;certified Senate returns via MIT Election Lab010020030040012 mo.963electionSenate polls in the trailing 30 days60 days out56 in 30 daysMidterms (2018, 2022)Presidential (2020, 2024)2026

Baseline

Each poll’s two-party margin minus the seat’s previous presidential two-party margin; positive favors Democrats. Each poll counts once, with the actual nominees. Baselines: 2016 for 2018 and 2020, 2020 for 2022 and 2024, 2024 for 2026, on 2026 district lines.

Pollster adjustments

Partisan firms are corrected by how they differed from other firms polling the same race within three weeks, 2018–2024, pulled toward their group’s average. Firms with fewer than five such polls get the average. Nonpartisan polls are untouched.

Sandbagging adjustment

Democratic House polls often show close races where nonpartisan polls show comfortable Democratic leads. So for each point a seat is bluer than Trump+10, the Democratic correction shrinks by 0.4 points. For an average firm it crosses zero near Trump+2.4 and stops changing past Harris+5.

Averages

Lines are centred three-week averages, equally weighted, with at least six polls. From there to today the line uses the trailing six weeks: full weight for a week, then tapering to zero, which blunts the effect of late-released polls.

Adjusting for seat mix

Estimates swing in a seat that voted like the nation in 2024, from the 120-day relationship between seat partisanship and swing, applied across the whole line. The uncertainty covers this adjustment only.

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Every chart on this page, updated with new House and Senate polls through Election Day. For paid subscribers to The Intersection.

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