Hispanic Texas swung hard to Talarico. Turnout fell hardest in Republican Texas.
The 17 counties where Hispanic voters are at least 70% of the electorate swung 43 points from 2024. The 183 counties Trump won by 50 or more cast 80% of their 2024 vote, against 90% in the counties Harris carried. Together, that took Texas from Trump +14 to Talarico +12.
Talarico over Paxton
from Trump's 2024 margin
Hinojosa over Abbott
of the 2024 presidential vote
The swing, county by county
No county moved toward the Republican. The Rio Grande Valley moved most; small, deep-red rural counties moved least.
| Median county swing | |
| Counties flipped to Talarico | |
| Counties that moved right |
Margin: Democratic minus Republican share of all votes cast for the office. Hover or tap a county for its returns.
Hispanic counties swung most
Each dot is a county, sized by 2026 votes. X axis: the group's share of the county's 2026 likely electorate. Lines and r are weighted by votes.
County-level patterns, not estimates of how each group voted. Black and Asian include college and non-college voters.
Turnout fell hardest in Trump country
2026 Senate votes as a share of 2024 presidential votes. The more Democratic the county, the more of its 2024 electorate came back.
| Fewer votes than 2024 | |
| Share of drop from Trump-won counties | |
| Travis County, % of 2024 | |
| Counties under 75% of 2024 |
Dots sized by 2024 votes. Dashed line: vote-weighted linear trend.
Talarico ran ahead of Hinojosa almost everywhere
Talarico's Senate margin minus Hinojosa's governor margin. A 5-point gap means at least 2.5% of voters split their tickets on net.
| Talarico ran ahead | |
| Median gap | |
| Talarico–Abbott counties |
County results
Sort by any column.
| County | 2026 votes | 2024 pres. | 2026 Senate | Swing | 2026 gov. | Sen. − gov. | Vs. 2024 votes |
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